28/12/2009

Another Entry to the How Is X Like Y? Genre

[T]he incredible effort that very bright people use to make up credible (though obviously wrong) assertions of deep wisdom in Star Wars is very like the incredible effort that very bright people have traditionally used to construct credible (though obviously wrong) assertions about the deep wisdom of the bible, particularly the old testament.

The source material, in both cases, is a viscerally entertaining though intellectually shallow attempt to use parables to fabricate a philosophy. The stories are good but the arguments crude and contradictory -- as you'd expect in philosophy created by the primitive minds found in bronze age tribes and Hollywood.

But both sets of stories became extremely popular and both were told to many very bright people during their formative intellectual years. As they aged, many of those bright people doubtless spotted the laughable problems in both sets of stories and moved on to more sophisticated fare. But many others maintained bizarre affection, not only for the good stories but for the idea of their underlying wisdom.

With no actual underlying wisdom to point to, these bright people spent absurd amounts of time constructing elaborate arguments to explain why the bible/Star Wars does not really mean the crude and idiotic stuff it obviously asserts but much smarter, subtler stuff that hidden deep in the subtext.
That is commenter Scoop at this post. With both Levitt/Dubner and Gladwell currently having books on the bestseller lists, maybe Scoop should consider trying to get a book deal on the basis of this comment.

24/12/2009

Forget about Coca-Cola

There are some fifty varieties of amanita muscaria, a mushroom that is widely distributed amongst the birch and fir trees of northern Europe and Asia [...]

Amanita muscaria was cerainly widely used in Siberia, Lapland and other regions of the far north, where shamans once used it to induce journeys from which they returned with prophecies, solutions, remedies and songs. These were semi-nomadic people, who followed the seasonal migrations of their deer. When the deer went in search of the mushrooms, the herders would go with them. When the deer ate their mushrooms, the herders would drink their urine, consuming the fly agaric's alkaloids after they were processed by the deer. They would also drink each other's urine too [sic], and the mushroom could be passed through the bodies of half-a-dozen people before its potency was lost. Getting pissed is now associated with alcohol - in Britain, at least - but it was the reindeer herders who started the trend. [...]

One of the most enduring manifestations of [the fly agaric mushroom's] old shamanic routes visits the modern world every year when Santa Claus, dressed in red and white, flies through the sky in a sleigh drawn by reindeer bearing gifts from another world.
That's from Writing on Drugs by Sadie Plant (London et al., 1999: Faber, pp. 93-94), who does not cite any sources in support of this surprising contention but appears to be serious.

So, happy holidays everybody, and should you get pissed, make sure you spare a thought for the reindeer. I'll be visiting family, so you shouldn't expect any new posts here for a few days, but there will be updates at the film blog due to the marvels of Blogger's scheduling function. Ah, the wonders of modern technology. The greatest gift of them all!

Pebbles, Vol. 22: Christmas Special

1. Steve Sailer: Kill Bill vs. The Passion of the Christ

2. Holy Bible: Stock Car Racing Edition (pointer)

3. And if you're still short a Christmas gift for a dog owner, this might be what you're looking for.

20/12/2009

Rectangular Eyes

God willing, I will indeed review the rest of the movies I've seen this year on this blog, as promised a while back. To avert the occurence of such backlogs in the future, however, I've started a separate movie blog, called Rectangular Eyes, where I review newly seen films more or less in real time, starting with the ones I've seen from December 1st onwards. That's also where the reviews of my favourite films of the decade will be published once it's actually over. To even out all of the admiration for outstanding achievements, I'll also do a series to commemorate the worst-reviewed movies of the decade (according to Metacritic), collecting in each of ten posts some samples of what the critics had to say about these masterpieces. Read the introductory post here, the first installment on Tuesday or just use the Honouring the Worst Movies of the Noughties tag.

So, feel free to go over there and marvel at the spectacularly unimaginative choice for the header photo. The blog's name, by the way, is not some corny metaphor for the screen or some such thing, but rather refers to what German parents tell their children will happen if they watch too much TV: "Davon kriegst Du viereckige Augen" - "That'll make you get rectangular eyes."

13/12/2009

Civil War and Violence on the Football Pitch Revisited, Leading to General Comments on Academics and Bloggers

About 20 months ago, I posted a critical analysis of a paper called "National Cultures and Soccer Violence" by by Edward Miguel, Sebastián M. Saiegh and Shanker Satyanath. I concluded:
A paper which operationalizes both the dependent and the main independent variable poorly, uses a questionable statistical model and finds a significant association in only one out of three tests of the hypothesis - an association which turns out not to be robust.
Now Tyler Cowen posts the most recent (October 2009) version of the paper, now entitled "Civil War Exposure and Violence". The front page footer reads (my emphasis):
We are grateful to Dan Altman, Ray Fisman, Matias Iaryczower, Abdul Nouri, Dani Rodrik, seminar participants at Stanford, UCSD, UCLA, IPES, and at the 4th Annual HiCN Workshop at Yale, and a host of anonymous bloggers for useful comments, and Dan Hartley, Teferi Mergo, Melanie Wasserman and Tom Zeitzoff for excellent research assistance. All errors remain our own.
I'll get back to that. First, let's have a look at what happened to the paper's weaknesses which I highlighted. Quotes from my old post are indented, new comments are unindented and quotations from the new version of the Miguel et al. paper are indented and in italics.
1. The authors do cite evidence showing that "civil conflict" is followed by more violent crime, but treating "years of conflict" as a measure of culture - a vague and broad concept - is taking it a bit far.
Addressed. This whole culture idea has disappeared; the paper is now framed more narrowly in terms of "civil war and violence". In fact, the word "culture" makes only one appearance in the main text of the paper.
2. Generally, the authors seem to have a poor grasp of football. For example, they write: "A player who receives a yellow card continues to play in the match, yet the yellow card serves as the first and last warning." Incorrect; anyone who watches football regularly knows that players who are already booked will often be verbally cautioned by refs that they're close to being sent off.
Addressed. "last warning" changed to "last formal warning" (p.5).
[pt. 2 ctd.] More importantly, they also write: "In some cases, a yellow card may be awarded for persistent fouling, or for non-violent forms of unsporting behavior, for instance, disobeying an explicit order given by the referee. However, in practice the vast majority of cards are granted for flagrantly hard fouls." I'd like to see some numbers on this claim; I would guess that about a fifth of bookings are handed out for "non-violent forms of unsporting behaviour". Note, however, that this biases the results against the authors' hypothesis.
Addressed with data (pp.5-6):
Figure 1 illustrates the causes of yellow cards in the Italian league during the 2005/2006, 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 seasons, and in the UEFA Champions League in 2004/2005 and 2005/2006.6 In the Italian league, nearly three quarters of all yellow cards were awarded for violent fouls (“assault”), while in the UEFA data the proportion is close to two thirds.
*
3. The authors write: "As mentioned, actual crime rates are unsatisfactory as measures of a 'culture of violence', since individuals’ real-world actions plausibly reflect the combined influence of legal institutions and economic factors, in addition to cultural norms." (pp. 2-3) Is that not true of "civil conflict"? (They later give better reasons for not using crime rates, yet this point reinforces the argument that the authors' measure of culture is poor.)
Addressed. Sentence dropped.
4. This one's hard to believe. The authors write: "The magnitude [of the association] is quite large [...]. The predicted number of yellow cards for [an African player in the French league] increases by 3.6 percent when civil conflict prevalence in his home country increases by one standard deviation, or 4 years" (pp. 8-9). You're calling that "large"?
Addressed, sort of. On p. 11, they write:
The predicted number of yellow cards for such a player increases by 3.6 percent when civil conflict prevalence in his home country increases by one standard deviation, or 4 years. Player age is also positively correlated with yellow cards and can serve as a basis for comparison. If the age of the representative African player decreases by two years, his estimated number of yellow cards decreases by 3.0 percent, roughly offsetting the positive conflict effect.
Yet on p. 12 they go back to calling it large.
5. The authors do not control for the quality of the team the player is on. I have not crunched the numbers on this but am pretty sure that holding player quality (which the authors control for) constant, players on lower-quality teams commit more fouls due to a) weaker teams having possession of the ball less often combined with b) players being much more likely to commit a foul when their team is not in possession.
Addressed, but not totally satisfactorily. The authors write (p.13):
The result is also robust to accounting for team quality, measured by their league standings in two variables: the first variable indicates if the team finished among the top five teams in its league, while the second indicates if they finished among the bottom five. Players on top-five teams are less likely to receive yellow cards (coefficient estimate -0.043, z-score 1.68) while players in lowly teams receive somewhat more cards (0.063, z-score 1.66), but most importantly, the point estimate on the civil war measure remains large and statistically significant (0.0072, z-score 2.48, not shown) when these team controls are included.
Top and bottom five dummies are not the first measures that come to mind when one wants to control for team quality; number of points per game played would have been more obvious. That this measure is not used raises suspicion.
6. The authors do control for exposure time by including variables on matches started and matches come on as a substitue (minutes on the pitch would have been better), but if their hypothesis were right, we should expect an interaction effect between these and the "years of conflict" variable. (Whatever your "culture", you're unlikely to get booked when you're not on the pitch.) They do not test for this.
Not addressed. No results for interactions. The authors do explain, however, that no statistics for minutes played are easily available.
7. When Colombia (an outlier) is excluded from the analysis, the results are not significant at the conventional 5% level anymore (p. 10).
This is still the case (Appendix Table 2, Column 4). However, the authors use a formal statistical test I'm not familiar with and exclude the outliers thus identified, which yields significant results (Appendix Table 2, Column 1). It is unclear players from which countries were excluded in this specification. Overall, the results seem a little unstable.
8. The association between years of conflict and red cards received - a much better measure of violent behaviour (see pt. 2) - is not significant at the 5% level (p. 11). In fairness, red cards are rare, which makes it hard to find an association.
Still the case and discussed pretty much along these lines.
9. The authors find no association of years of conflict with fouls that do not lead to a booking (p. 11). Strangely, they interpret this as supporting their hypothesis; I draw the opposite conclusion.
Even more strangely, this measure has disappeared altogether.

My new conclusion: Although it is nice to see many of the problems I pointed out addressed, I am still not convinced by the authors' results, due to what I said in my comments to points 4-7 and 9. Plus, no collinearity statistics.

Two more general points about the interplay between academics and bloggers

1. As acknowledged by Miguel et al., they profited from comments from blogistan. Unless this causes problems in the formal publication process (because journals want "unpublished" papers and may be strict about it), it seems like an excellent idea to get your paper onto blogs. Even if you get only ten valuable comments, it is definitely worth it. It should not be forgotten in this context that reactions from blogs often come quickly, in contrast to reactions from journal reviewers. And bloggers however many faults they find, bloggers can't reject your paper.

2. Although I'd like to think so, I don't know whether I was one of the commenters whose criticizms were used in rewriting the paper. But that is not the point. The point is that when you use someone's written comments in rewriting your paper, you mention that person by name. Even if it is a not very scholarly-sounding alias.

Pebbles, Vol. 21: Year in Ideas Special

The New York Times has published its most recent installment of the Year in Ideas. Personal Favourites:Alternatively, here are Andy McKenzie's choices.

10/12/2009

The Boyfriend's Fallacy

The limits of mathematical thinking: In geometry, if the distance between A and B is d1 and the distance between B and C is d2, the distance between A and C cannot be greater than d1+d2. This does not hold in social relationships.

05/12/2009

Film and the City

A portion of Thom Anderson's celebrated Los Angeles Plays Itself:



Alternatively, New York destroyed in the movies:


(Source, via)

04/12/2009

Around the Blogs, Vol. 35: Subjective Expected Utility Issue

1. How to maximize utility: The problem of expectations

2. "When Is Uncertainty an Argument for Inaction?"

3. This seems like a useful social science concept: The Gatekeeper Syndrome

02/12/2009

In Praise of the English Language

The best thing about the English language is that words travel freely between parts of speech - as evidenced by such beautiful constructions such as, "We should have red-flagged that for you" or even, if you're feeling wild, "Let me caveat that". Don't try that in German.

The second best thing about the English language is that these constructions are readily understood by anyone who knows the meaning of the word used in the standard way. I've just done a quick google search for the term "churner" (n.) and have only found
A vessel or device in which cream or milk is agitated to separate the oily globules from the caseous and serous parts, used to make butter.
Yet I had no problem understanding the following, in a post by Tyler Cowen about productivity and reputation in academia:
I take the lesson to be that lots of schools -- non-top departments -- want to hire churners with a lot of published output.
The way the sentence is constructed, it seems Cowen did not assume everyone would understand the word immediately; otherwise the phrase "with a lot of published output" would be superfluous. Is the word common?

It certainly seems useful, but I wonder: Should the term be used for anyone who produces output at a high rate or should we reserve it for those whose output couples high quantity with low quality. True, the two often go together, but not always. I am thinking of Michael Curtiz, who directed more than 150 films - about three in a typical year - including Doctor X, Gold Is Where You Find It, and Miss Tutti Frutti. As well as Casablanca. Was he a churner?

And can we call Tyler Cowen, the blogger, a churner or not?

28/11/2009

Rebel, Rebel

My mother said I should do whatever I liked, and I vowed to ignore her.

26/11/2009

Stop the Presses!

I've finally found it: The intelligent and funny comment at YouTube. Context: The following classic scene from Annie Hall:



Comment:
It has taken me years, but I see the irony. now. The irony actually having the message presented by McLuhan.
That's from RandomlyDelish. Room for improvement in the capitalization and grammar departments, but that's pretty clever, no?

24/11/2009

Assessing Institutions: In the Absence of Knowledge, Which Assumptions Are You Going to Make?

Promoting the underrated let's, let's, let's school of prose

In a post entitled "Protect the seemingly useless", Katja Grace approvingly quotes the following, by G.K. Chesterton:
In the matter of reforming things, as distinct from deforming them, there is one plain and simple principle; a principle which will probably be called a paradox. There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”

This paradox rests on the most elementary common sense. The gate or fence did not grow there. It was not set up by somnambulists who built it in their sleep. It is highly improbable that it was put there by escaped lunatics who were for some reason loose in the street. Some person had some reason for thinking it would be a good thing for somebody. And until we know what the reason was, we really cannot judge whether the reason was reasonable. It is extremely probable that we have overlooked some whole aspect of the question, if something set up by human beings like ourselves seems to be entirely meaningless and mysterious. There are reformers who get over this difficulty by assuming that all their fathers were fools; but if that be so, we can only say that folly appears to be a hereditary disease. But the truth is that nobody has any business to destroy a social institution until he has really seen it as an historical institution. If he knows how it arose, and what purposes it was supposed to serve, he may really be able to say that they were bad purposes, that they have since become bad purposes, or that they are purposes which are no longer served. But if he simply stares at the thing as a senseless monstrosity that has somehow sprung up in his path, it is he and not the traditionalist who is suffering from an illusion.
Let's start by saying explicitly something which is only implicit in the quote*: The rational part of political disagreement can have two components; (i) disagreement about the consequences of a political measure and (ii) disagreement about how potential consequences should be valued. This implies that people can be bad in at least two different senses of the word: They can be incompetent (harboring incorrect assumptions about the consequences of political measures) or they can be evil (holding values which are very different from ours). To illustrate, the Nazis were evil (they wanted to kill lots of Jews) and competent (they managed to do so), while Marx was benevolent (he wanted to improve poor people's lots) but incompetent (his theory was crap).**

Let's for the moment accept the assumptions that (i) the institution in question is of human design and (ii) the designers were competent. This does not settle the issue whether the institution should be abolished. Rather, this raises the question how we assess the designers' values. If we do not know them, we'll have to make assumptions. To stick with the fence example, we may not know why exactly our ancestors errected the fence, but we may know that they valued the well-being of the people on the other side of the fence much less than the well-being of the people on this side. We might conclude that they erected the fence so the people from the other side (where there are often food shortages) could not pick fruit from the trees growing on this side. If we disagree with our ancestors' relative valuation of the well-being of people on this and the other side of the fence, we may come to the conclusion that it may be best to tear down the fence.

More generally, the assumption that the designers of institutions were competent should not be the end of the debate about the merit of their products, but rather the starting point. For if we believed the designers to have been completely incompetent, the consequences of their products should be assumed to be neutral on average. If we believe them to have been competent, the default assumption according to Chesterton should be that he designers were benevolent - the reformer must show that the purposes served "were bad purposes" - but I don't see any general reason why this should be so.

The argument that we should be careful to mess with established institutions usually comes in a somewhat different flavour. In this view, it is irrelevant whether the institution in question is a product of conscious design and, if it is, what the designers were thinking. Elsewhere, I've called it The Basic Conservative Fallacy, denoting the view
that just because Feature X has been around for long means that it is better than alternatives. This is nonsense. All it shows is that societies which exhibit Feature X can be able to survive for a nontrivial amount of time. That's it. The age of a feature says nothing about its quality. The changed or new feature may be worse. It may be better. We need to assess it on its own prospective merits, and the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty involved in so doing does nothing to counter these arguments.
But, it might be said, a society surviving for a nontrivial amount of time is not nothing. True, few changes of institutions bring about the collapse of a society (however defined). But, although unlikely, it is a very grave consequence (in expected value terms, the product of p and U is nontrivial).

Even short of a collapse of society, it is said, changing institutions may bring about vast negative consequences that were not foreseen. For example, here's Megan McArdle, who thinks about gay marriage, also quotes the bit by Chesterton above approvingly, and outlines what she sees as three important negative consequences of well-meant changes to institutions.*** Changes to institutions may indeed bring about unintended negative consequences, but to say any more would be to commit what, while I'm at it, I'll call The Unintended Consequences Fallacy: the view that changes made will bring about unintended consequences of note and that unintended consequences, on net, will be negative. If this were so, it would be a very powerful blanket argument against changes, but there is no reason to believe it is indeed so. Also, let's not forget that changes in institutions usually lead to the intended consequences, which usually is not trivial either.

Finally, let's note that in many cases we have reliable information that our ancestors, many of whom were no fools, held values different from ours (especially different attitudes towards members of outgroups) and that many of the institutions they designed were in line with these values (i.e., the ancestors were competent and evil). If it is now unacceptable to promote such values in public discourse and discussants defend such institutions, but doing so using a currently acceptable value system, it does not automatically follow that their arguments are wrong, but it should make us especially critical of these arguments. Maybe the discussants are not being fully honest about the real reasons for their defense of the institutions.

Update: Funny this: A few hours after finishing this text, I come across a post by Robin Hanson arguing we have an inherent tendency to prefer existing institutions.

Disclaimer: Neither of Katja Grace's links gives more context for the quote, so I have not seen any.

______
*A less polite way of putting this would be to say that Chesterton does his best to obscure the distinction between the two.

**
This is an illustration. Please, no comments about Marx's real intentions, how Jews could have been killed more effectively, and the like.

***There's much in the essay I disagree with. There's also a lot I agree with. I recommend reading it.

18/11/2009

Introducing the Artsy-Fartsy-Meter


I don't think I'm going to use it all of the time, but for future reference in film reviews, this post introduces the Artsy-Fartsy-Meter. It's a unidimensional, bipolar Likert-type scale; -5 corresponds to The Fast and the Furious and +5 is an early b&w Bergman. In Swedish. Without subtitles.

17/11/2009

It's a Bit Like Complaining to Deutsche Telekom

Prague's Franz Kafka International Named World's Most Alienating Airport

(Pointer)

16/11/2009

Around the Blogs, Vol. 34

1. Brilliant marketing idea and/or animal cruelty? (Video)

2. A guide to premature "best 2000-2009" music lists around the web.

3. Andrew Gelman vs. the median voter theorem: One, two.

4. Does doctors' (perceived) empathy have healing effects?

15/11/2009

Just Because There's Never Been a Blogpost Criticizing Malcolm Gladwell

I

Steven Pinker reviews Malcolm Gladwell's new book of old articles (all of which are available for free online), providing quite a good characterization of the strengths and weaknesses of Gladwell's writings more generally (pointer). Check out this quote (link added):
Gladwell frequently holds forth about statistics and psychology, and his lack of technical grounding in these subjects can be jarring. He provides misleading definitions of “homology,” “saggital plane” and “power law” and quotes an expert speaking about an “igon value” (that’s eigenvalue, a basic concept in linear algebra). In the spirit of Gladwell, who likes to give portentous names to his aperçus, I will call this the Igon Value Problem: when a writer’s education on a topic consists in interviewing an expert, he is apt to offer generalizations that are banal, obtuse or flat wrong.
And he goes on to point out a flaw I find much more annoying:
The banalities come from a gimmick that can be called the Straw We. First Gladwell disarmingly includes himself and the reader in a dubious consensus — for example, that “we” believe that jailing an executive will end corporate malfeasance, or that geniuses are invariably self-made prodigies or that eliminating a risk can make a system 100 percent safe. He then knocks it down with an ambiguous observation, such as that “risks are not easily manageable, accidents are not easily preventable.”
This technique is by no means exclusive to Gladwell. At least before I stopped reading it, this blog was almost all Straw We.

II

Earlier this year, I complained about Malcolm Gladwell's, um, creative use of the term "outliers". As my mind is in the habit of retaining the strangest of things, I recently remembered a comment from a blogpost of Gladwell's. The context is disagreement about car salesmen's strategies and Gladwell citing a particularly successful car salesman in support of his view. Which provoked the following comment:

When did sampling the 99th percentile of anything become a reliable sample? That's pretty shoddy fieldwork.

You gotta sample all the percentiles, or at least a reasonable range, to get quality data.

99th percentiles are usually known as "outliers."

No, they're not.

I submit that's where Gladwell got his book's title from.

14/11/2009

The World We Have Lost

In September 1972, Roxy Music appeared on prime time TV in the UK. It was their first national TV exposure, a three-minute appearance performing their first single.

And the way they looked and sounded stunned me, and a generation of mes.

But we had no video recorders, and of course there was no YouTube. There was no way whatsoever that I could watch that appearance again, however badly I wanted to. And the power of that restriction was enormous.

The only way I could get close to that experience was to own the song. I lived in the suburbs, so I had to ride my bike for miles before I could find a store that sold music, let alone one that had the record in stock. It was a small trial of manhood and an adventure.

But once I had that song, I could play it whenever I chose. I had to go on a quest of sorts to get it, but my need was such that I did it.
That is John Taylor, of Duran Duran fame, via Tyler Cowen.

I remember a veteran of the German punk movement telling me about an evening in the early 1980s - how after a concert in the parking lot, they all formed a huddle around someone's car, because in the car: a tape player, and in the tape player: a tape containing a recording of the new album of that new band from America everybody who knew said was so great. The band was called Dead Kennedys, and you couldn't buy their records in Germany.

I also remember the time when, if you wanted to see a specific old film, either it was on one of the three TV channels, or it was playing in the cinema, or it was tough luck. Even if you were a professional film critic.

Future musicians and filmmakers are going to be less passionate about their art. They'll also be more knowledgeable.

12/11/2009

Around the Blogs, Vol. 33: Econ ed.

1. The SES-mortality connection: An anomaly

2. A theory of economic inequality

3. "Slipperiness of the term 'riks aversion'"

04/11/2009

Pebbles, Vol. 20

1. The 100 most visited articles on Wikipedia in 2009

2. Natürlich aus Japan: Mein Kampf als Comic. Auf den ersten beiden Bildern sieht Hitler aus wie ein Japaner, auf dem letzten wie ein süßes Kätzchen.

3. Trying to quantify false rape charges: It's not easy.

4. "Gallup typically finds Americans perceiving increased crime in the United States, compared to the prior year. Only once -- in October 2001 -- has this not been the case."

03/11/2009

Weird World

From the Guardian:
Manchester United have submitted a claim of mistaken identity to the Football Association after Fábio da Silva was booked by Chris Foy against Barnsley in the Carling Cup.

Instead the offender – for a challenge on Jamal Campbell-Ryce – was his twin brother, Rafael.

My understanding of the rules is that a referee's on-pitch decision, even if demonstrably wrong, stands - except in those exceptional cases when it really shouldn't.

But then, sometimes it seems public offices aren't run much more professionally. Seht Roberts writes about something I've been wondering about on and off:

An example of “too big to fail” never mentioned in discussions of the financial crisis are big public-works projects: In spite of staggering cost overruns, which occur in practically every project, they are never stopped. The latest example is London’s Crossrail, a new train crossing London. Original estimated cost: 3 billion pounds. Current estimated cost: 16 billion pounds. And construction hasn’t started!

I heard a talk about why this happens. I think the speaker said there was no motivation to be honest. The companies that underbid dishonestly pay no penalty; the politicians that approve their dishonest bids risk nothing.
Same problem in Germany.

There appears to be a very simple and obvious solution to this problem: Pay the company responsible the agreed-on-beforehand sum X to do Y. How much it costs them to reach the well-defined goal is immaterial for the payment. Surely there is a very good reason why this isn't done? Surely?

01/11/2009

The Pro-Problem Bias in Movie Ratings

Film week post #6

A while ago Andy McKenzie argued that there are four biases in movie ratings: availability bias (nobody's seen all films, so all ratings, being inherently relative, are flawed), snobbery bias (o.k. films are rated as bad), anchoring-based bias (films that already command high acclaim are rated higher) and anti-foreign language bias (films in foreign languages get lower marks). I'll propose another one: pro-problem bias. The idea is that films which deal with "problem" topics, such as extreme poverty or genocide, get higher marks than is warranted by the raters' enjoyment of those films, explaining the otherwise mysterious presence of American History X on IMDb's list of top rated 1990's films. The idea is that, say, giving Schindler's List a 4/10 rating makes people feel like antisemites and that giving Hotel Rwanda 10/10 is cheaper than giving € 10 to a charity. I guess Leon Festinger would have agreed.

Testing this hypothesis requires a measure of people's enjoyment of a film other than self-report. Neuroscientist, we're counting on you!

From the CoR's Public Service Department

Film week post #5

I've recently been using best lists a lot to select films to watch, mainly those from TSPDT (a sort of meta-analysis of critics lists, biased towards old films) and IMDb (general fans, biased towards new releases). My general impression so far has been that TSPDT is a little too high-brow for me, while IMDb is a little too low-brow. So I've constructed a list of pictures that made both lists, and here it is. Leaving aside the quirks of my own personal taste, and having seen 117 of the 155 movies on it, this is the one list I would recommend to someone who wants to get serious about her moviewatchin'. As it is, the order is taken from the IMDb list. A more sophisticated approach would have used some point system to get combined ranking based on both lists. Somebody else do it.

29/10/2009

Pebbles, Vol. 19: Screen Special

Film week post #4

1. Movie enjoyability as a function of movie quality.

2. Tyler Cowen reviews The End of Poverty. Scathingly. Someone should ask him to write about Michael Moore's latest.

3. The utility of computers is sometimes exaggerated in films and TV series.

4. US films' domestic box office, without and with adjustment for ticket price inflation. No. 1 on the adjusted list is as expected, but have you ever heard of The Robe? Or It's a Mad, Mad, Mad World? Not I.

5. "Somewhat edgy gift for a person in the terminal ward."

27/10/2009

The CoR's Get Rich (But Not Quickly, and You'll Have to Work for It, too) Scheme

Film week post #3

There even is a word for it in German: Ostalgie, a blend of Ost (east) and Nostalgie (nostalgia), denoting the sentiment that somehow everything was better back then, when the party told us what to think. It has ebbed off now, but during the late 1990s/early 2000s, there was an outright mainstream fashion surrounding that view. I'm talking saturday night entertainment shows revolving around the eastern-style Ampelmännchen and Rotkäppchen sparkling. (Ironically enough, the GDR-style Ampelmännchen is alive and well in the eastern parts of Germany, as are those traditional east German products people really want. The latter is due to a thing we have called supply and demand.)

This trend didn't go down well with everybody. Some pointed out that, after all, the GDR had been a dictatorship, with well one hundred thousand people employed by the secret police. One commenter remarked that he was looking forward for the TV shows on how swell life was in the Third Reich.

The 1999 comedy Sonnenallee was sometimes seen as a part of the ostalgie fad. From Wikipedia's plot synopsis:
Michael (or 'Micha') is a 17-year-old growing up in communist East Germany (GDR) in the 1970s. He spends his time with his friends listening to banned pop music, partying and trying to win over the heart of Miriam, who is dating a West Berlin boy. Over the course of the movie his best friend Mario, falls for an existentialist, gets kicked out of school and subsequently discovers he is going to be a father. The closing of the movie upsets Micha's thus far idealistic life, as Mario sells out his ideals by signing up for military service to support his girlfriend and the child.
Sonnenallee and Goodbye Lenin, another lighthearted GDR-themed comedy, were criticized for being part of the retrospective glorification of the east German dictatorship, and when Das Leben der Anderen (The Lives of Others) was released, many breathed a sigh of relief: The movie, which chronicles secret police employee Gerd Wiesler's second thoughts about the morality of his actions while surveilling a playwright, finally displayed the GDR's ugly side.

But what's wrong with Sonnenallee? Did youths in east Germany have friends? Check. Were they into pop music? Check. Did they fall in love? Check. Did some get kicked out of school? Check. Did some of them become fathers at an early age? Check. The most inaccurate bit about the film is probably the Sonnenallee street's architecture. Why not set a film in a dictatorship but focus on aspects of life other than state oppression?

But I say let's go all the way with this: Let's have a film set in, say, 1935, in which the atrocities of the Hitler regime don't feature. I'm not being sarcastic here. Did youths in Hitler's Germany have friends? Check. Were they into pop music? Check (although they didn't call it pop music back then). Did they fall in love? Check. Did some get kicked out of school? Check. Did some of them become fathers at an early age? Check. If, for convenience's sake, you'd set it in a place where there are no Jews in the first place (rural Bavaria?), you should be able to make a nice coming-of-age comedy without ever lying about life in the Third Reich.

I mean, there's no such thing as bad publicity, is there? And boy, would you stir up a controversy! I'm talking prime time discussion rounds with pundits, film critics and professors of history. Cover stories in Spiegel and Stern. And as a minority but sizeable portion of the German populace likes getting information before forming an opinion, you'd almost be guaranteed a million viewers, even if your film is crap.

When the dosh is in, contact me by mail for bank details.

26/10/2009

Five Great Trailers

Film week post #2

Earlier, I linked to IFC's list of the 50 best trailers, but now having watched all of them, I'm under the strong impression that it might be better described as a list of original trailers (which are likely to be remembered by jury members). So, as a public service, here are the five best ones (as objectively decided by myself), including the trashy (#5), the surprising (#4), the clever (#4, #3), the funny (#5, #3), the elegant (#2) and the daring (#1):

5. Corruption (1968)



4. Red Eye (2005)



3. Comedian (2002)



2. The Man Who Wasn't There (2001)



1. The Shining (1980)

25/10/2009

Recently Watched

Kicking off the CoR's film week. If that's not your topic, see you in November.

Duo luo tian shi
(Fallen Angels) (1995): There's a killer and there's a prostitute, but never mind the little plot there is. This offering from Wong Kar-Wai (of Chunking Express fame) explores the idea of choosing to live on the off the field by means of style. Set entirely during the neon-enlightened Hongkong night, the film liberally mixes b/w and colour, uses unconventional camera angles and foregrounds pop music in a way that nowadays comes across as very 1990s, but in a good way. 7/10 if you're in the mood for this kind of thing.

The Hangover (2009): Having gone to Las Vegas with the intention of drinking themselves legless, our protagonists wake up the next day, can't remember a thing and try to find out what happened. Contains all the plot elements I could have thought of (So they were in a hospital? Really?), but, although it's clearly aimed at a teen audience, I found this film to be a decent enough way to spend 90 minutes. (6/10)

Unforgiven (1992): I can't see what all the fuss is about. An old gunman, who's not that good at gunning anymore, comes to town to gun down some baddies, and in the end there is a lot of shooting. (6/10)

Mr. & Mrs. Smith (1941): Not related to the Pitt-Jolie film of the same name, this romantic comedy might be seen to suggest that Hitchcock should have concentrated on thrillers. But how many pre-1941 Hitchkocks can you name that were better? (6/10)

Rocker (1971): One may wonder whether the, cough, cough, non-mainstream appearance of this German indie film is due to incompetence or choice. A bit of both, I guess. The real mystery, however, is how it made it onto the They Shoot Pictures, Don't They? list of the 1000 most critically acclaimed films ever. (4.5/10)

Tirez sur le pianiste (Shoot the Piano Player) (1960): In its heyday, the nouvelle vague was widely perceived as bringing a fresh approach to film aesthetics. Some fifty years later, it again looks fresh. In an old way. If you know what I mean. (6.5/10) And while we're at it:

Pickpocket (1959): With some films, I feel they would work better as a written narrative. The extensive voiceover used in this look at the bottom rung of society is no substitute for what you could do in a novel if you have a subject matter that's 70% character of the protagonist and 30% plot. An extra half point for the excellent scence at the train station in which wallets are swapped back and forth. Trivia section: Actress Marika Green (Jeanne) bears a striking resemblance to Nicolette Krebitz. (6/10)

Le salarie de la peur (Wages of Fear) (1953): This film about four men hired to drive trucks that are loaded with nitroglycerine over bumpy South American dirt roads is very solid suspense work indeed, never seeming long despite running for well over two hours. Its stellar reputation as a masterpiece, however, may also have something to do with the fact that this is a b/w 1950s French film, but a little more, you know, fun than your average Truffaut. Trivia section: In one scene, you can almost sort of see Véra Clouzot's nipples, very unusual in those days. (7/10)

A History of Violence (2005): Tom Stall appears to be a clean-cut guy until his past comes back to haunt him, but from there on it's ugly, ugly, ugly. You shouldn't expect a romantic comedy featuring lots of cute puppies when getting a film called A History of Violence, but I can't say I enjoyed this gloomy slashfest. (unrated)

Elegy (2008): The Dying Animal, the Philip Roth novel this one's based on, is maybe my favourite of Roth's book, but it is short, introspective and not exactly plot-driven, thus not giving a filmmaker an awful lot to work with. Given that, the film delivers about as much as you can reasonably expect. An extra .5 points for Ben Kingsley's face. (6.5/10)

People I Know (2002): Pretends to be a thriller for a while and develops a lot of threads that are all dangling in the air when the film is over. I guess what the screenwriter had in mind was the tragic portrait of an ageing professional; as that kind of film, it fails. (4.5/10)

Fracture (2007): This crime/court thriller featuring Anthony Hopkins as the baddie is nice enough, but has a made-for-TV feel to it. And the ending's a bit hard to believe. (5.5/10)

The Village (2004): There seems to be some general agreement that M. Night Shyamalan's carreer after the excellent and wildly successful Sixth Sense is a failure. True, none of his films were as good as this big hit, but Unbreakable was a worthy follow-up, and Signs was a fine film, too. The Village, about nineteenth-century peasants who can't leave their hamlet because it is surrounded by woods inhabited by hostile creatures is also recommended. Visually very disciplined and using the colour red ("forbidden" because it attracts the creatures) to great effect in the few scenes in which it makes an appearance, it also features some of those plot twists Shyamalan loves so much. (7.5/10)

The Caine Mutiny (1954): Thorough as a German civil servant, this minor classic recounts the fictional mutiny on a 2nd world war American minesweeper, including prehistory, buildup, mutiny, preceedings before the court martial and coda (or whatever you want to call it). Entertaining in a conventional way, it almost appears like a conscious antithesis to anything artsy-fartsy and postmodern. Deductions for 1950s-quality special effects and Humphrey Bogart for confirming my long-held suspicion that he'd be found out by any role that involved substantially more than smoking. (6.5/10)

21/10/2009

Metaphor of the Day

Matthew Baldwin is reading Dracula (the original Bram Stoker novel):
Like all parasites, vampires are unable to “live” without siphoning off the energy of others. [... They] don’t kill their victims outright, they feed from time and time, dropping in for a snack whenever the mood strikes. They don’t prey on humans so much as farm them.

[...]

In a funny way, the Lucy chapters struck me as a extended allegory of the current Wall Street bailout, as every day taxpayers are asked to roll up their sleeves and give blood, and every night their contributions are handed over to disreputable individuals, many of whom probably also live in castles.
Click on the link to read infinitedetox's idea on how this thought could be extended into a kind of new American Psycho, only more entertaining.

20/10/2009

Around the Blogs, Vol. 32: Cows, Kids, Booze and Freaks

1. The effect of naming cows on their milk production and the other winners of the latest Ig Nobels

2. "With the card, people who got into trouble for, say, minor crimes or drunk and disorderly conduct in public would receive a fixed penalty notice and 3 points on their entitlement card with points disappearing over time for in the same way works on driving licences." The idea of a drinker's license.

3. Did having kids ever make economic sense?

4. "Possible models for Freakonomics 3" Or Superduperfreakonomics as it will probably be called.

18/10/2009

The Death Penalty

Everybody has an opinion on that one, no? Either it's "Yeah! Let the punishment fit the crime!" or "God, no! It's barbaric!" Now, I think it's fine to have emotional reactions to practices, but surely whether the death penalty saves lives, costs lives or is neutral in that respect should play a huge role in whether you support it, oppose it or take an agnostic position, no?

Where I live*, everyone opposes it. The only person I've ever met who advocated the death penalty (for O.J. Simpson specifically) was an American tourist. Seriously. If I wanted to, I could memorize the citations to some studies which suggest the death penalty saves lives and have a bit of fun arguing in its favour at the next party I'll go to. In theory, people could counter my arguments citing studies that suggest the death penalty does not save lives, or is even harmful in that respect ("brutalization effect"), which also exist. But of course people don't know those studies.

People. They're really not my type.

I may or may not be too agreeable a person to actually do this; we'll see about that.

Now, I know you come to this blog for the positive vibes. O.k.: Here's a photo of a puppy:


Feeling better?

______
*When I say "where I live" (and this goes for future posts as well), I don't just mean "Germany", but "where I live socially", i.e. the types of people I mingle with.

14/10/2009

Assorted Abstracts: War, Crime, Accidents, Death and Blogs

All of the papers mentioned below many well be worth their own post, but I'd have to read them first. They've all been hanging round my desktop for a while now and I just can't seem to find the time. But you may. Links on the titles are to full texts (pdfs or html). My comments are in italics.

Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg: "War and Relatedness"

We develop a theory of interstate conflict in which the degree of genealogical relatedness between populations has a positive effect on their conflict propensities because more closely related populations, on average, tend to interact more and develop more disputes over sets of common issues. We examine the empirical relationship between the occurrence of interstate conflicts and the degree of relatedness between countries, showing that populations that are genetically closer are more prone to go to war with each other, even after controlling for a wide set of measures of geographic distance and other factors that affect conflict, including measures of trade and democracy.

This sounds highly surprising; I would have predicted the opposite.


Dave E. Marcotte and Sarah Markovitz: "A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceutical Sales and Crime Trends" (Preliminary)

In this paper we consider possible links between the advent and diffusion of a number of new psychiatric pharmaceutical therapies and crime rates. We describe recent trends in crime and review the evidence showing mental illness as a clear risk factor both for criminal behavior and victimization. We then briefly summarize the development of many new pharmaceutical therapies for treatment of mental illness, which diffused during the “great American crime decline.” We examine limited international data, as well as more detailed American data to assess the relationship between crime rates and rates of prescriptions of two main categories of psychotropic drugs—antidepressants and stimulants, while controlling for other factors which may explain trends in crime rates. Our goal is to see if increases in prescriptions are associated with changes in crime rates. Any observed reduction in crime as a result of higher prescription rates would suggest that expansions in mental health treatment may have substantial benefits for society as a whole beyond improved health.

Potentially very important. The explanation for The Great American Crime Decline ca. 1995-2000 that has found most acceptance is the decline in open (street) crack markets. Must read!


Jaroslav Flegr, Jiří Klose, Martina Novotná, Miroslava Berenreitterová and Jan Havlíček: "Increased incidence of traffic accidents in Toxoplasma-infected military drivers and protective effect RhD molecule revealed by a large-scale prospective cohort study"

Background
Latent toxoplasmosis, protozoan parasitosis with prevalence rates from 20 to 60% in most populations, is known to impair reaction times in infected subjects, which results, for example, in a higher risk of traffic accidents in subjects with this life-long infection. Two recent studies have reported that RhD-positive subjects, especially RhD heterozygotes, are protected against latent toxoplasmosis-induced impairment of reaction times. In the present study we searched for increased incidence of traffic accidents and for protective effect of RhD positivity in 3890 military drivers.
Methods
Male draftees who attended the Central Military Hospital in Prague for regular entrance psychological examinations between 2000 and 2003 were tested for Toxoplasma infection and RhD phenotype at the beginning of their 1 to1.5-year compulsory military service. Subsequently, the data on Toxoplasma infection and RhD phenotype were matched with those on traffic accidents from military police records and the effects of RhD phenotype and Toxoplasma infection on probability of traffic accident was estimated with logistic regression.
Results
We confirmed, using for the first time a prospective cohort study design, increased risk of traffic accidents in Toxoplasma-infected subjects and demonstrated a strong protective effect of RhD positivity against the risk of traffic accidents posed by latent toxoplasmosis. Our results show that RhD-negative subjects with high titers of anti-Toxoplasma antibodies had a probability of a traffic accident of about 16.7%, i.e. a more than six times higher rate than Toxoplasma-free or RhD-positive subjects.
Conclusion
Our results showed that a common infection by Toxoplasma gondii could have strong impact on the probability of traffic accident in RhD negative subjects. The observed effects could provide not only a clue to the long-standing evolutionary enigma of the origin of RhD polymorphism in humans (the effect of balancing selection), but might also be the missing piece in the puzzle of the physiological function of the RhD molecule.

May this contribute to the explanation of long-term trends in traffic accidents?


Mikael Lindahl: "Estimating the Effect of Income on Health and Mortality Using Lottery Prizes as Exogenous Source of Variation in Income"

A vast literature has established a strong positive association of income with health status and a negative association with mortality. This paper studies the effects of income on health and mortality, using only the part of income variation that is due to a truly exogenous factor: the monetary lottery prizes of individuals. The findings are that higher income causally generates good health and that this effect is of similar magnitude as when traditional estimation techniques are used. A 10 percent increase in income increases good health by about 0.01-0.02 standard deviations.

Very important. Among other things, this suggests that Gottredson's explanation for the SES-health link, which I blogged about earlier, is wrong.


Alexia Gaudeuly, Laurence Mathieuz and Chiara Peroni: "Blogs and the Economics of Reciprocal Attention"

We argue in this paper that attention to one’s blog is won by paying attention to other bloggers. We derive properties of blogging networks from a model where bloggers trade attention and content. The predictions from the model are then checked against a novel dataset from LiveJournal, a major blogging community. As predicted, the activity of bloggers is found to be related to the size and level of reciprocity within a blogger’s relational network. We also find that bloggers who do not adhere to reciprocity norms are sanctioned with a lower number of readers.

Doing research on blogging may be a cheap trick to get your paper blogged about. It worked in the case of this blogger (sort of), but maybe the results are a bit too unsurprising to make more of a splash. Better to do reasearch on dead fish.

Given my nonmatching downloading and reading habits, "Assorted Abstracts" may become a regular feature.

13/10/2009

The CoR's Party Service

Only three more workdays to the weekend! If yours brings a party, you may find yourself in the vicinity of someone who's harping on about how Obama didn't deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. In which case you may want to point out that Elinor Ostrom was a good pic for the economics Nobel. (Make sure to quickly grant it isn't "a real Nobel" before some smartarse grabs his five seconds of very limited fame.) Have no clue what her work's about? Here's a good introduction to the problem she worked on, by herself (pointer: Will Wilkinson):



If you're feeling a little more adventurous, you may want to point out that it's curious that German writer Herta Müller was announced as the winner of literature's highest prize while German football club Hertha Berlin occupied the Bundesliga table's lowest position. Just an idea.

06/10/2009

Short Reviews Backlog, Pt. 2: Films (a)

Almost Famous (2000): Although the film is good to very good in other respects, it must be said that the screenplay's really formulaic; it's even got a scene set inside an airplane which is on the verge of crashing and everyone starts saying things they later regret. Just goes to show that setting is a very important aspect of a film - underrated, really - and the early 1970s rock star scene works much better for me than most. (7.5/10)

Being There (1979): The cinematography is ugly, the tempo is glacial, the screenplay is going nowhere, and generally it's remindful of Harold & Maude, only much worse. (3/10)

Charley Varrick (1973): Walther Matthau plays a hardcase. Really. If you've ever seen an episode of The Fall Guy, that gives you a good idea of the film's general aesthetics. O.k., the film's a bit better than that. (5/10)

Double Indemnity (1944): What was Wilder thinking? It's an obvious mistake to give away the ending right at the beginning! Apart from that, a charming crime movie from the olden days. And another one of the "must-sees" off my list. (6.5/10)

Hollywoodland (2006): I have next to no recollection of this movie (read all about it at Wikipedia), but do remember that I didn't like it as little as that suggests. 6/10, I think.

Metroland (1997)/SuperTex (2003): Two films that manage to completely suck the charm out of the pretty good books they're based on. And I can't even tell you how they did it. (4.5/10 each)

No Country for Old Men (2007): The opposite phenomenon here. It's basically just a series of shootouts - I was surprised to learn it's based on a short novel - but, strangely enough, it works very well. Sure, the cinematography's great, but that alone can't explain it. Steve Sailer thinks that the films solves the problem of bringing the pleasures of the first-person shooter game to the big screen by, paradoxically, slowing the action down: "the plot winds up as anti-climactically as most video game plays, with the (male) viewer wanting to try it again so the hero won't make the same mistakes twice." Hm. (7.5/10)

Various 1990s action flicks with Harrison Ford: These are all very formulaic/mainstream/professional easy viewing products which are just the right thing when I'm too tired to digest a masterpiece. A collective 6.5/10. (In at least one of them he plays a CIA employee. One of them is called Firewall. There may or may not be overlap between those.)

Touch of Evil (1958): I think I remember a time when there was a law in Germany which said that when you talk about Im Zeichen des Bösen, as it was called over here, you must make fun of the fact that Charlton Heston was cast as a Mexican. A quick Google search, however, suggests that law was abolished before that whole internet thing took off. Internationally, Touch of Evil seems to enjoy a somewhat more positive recognition (e.g., #14 of the top rated 1950s titles at imdb.com). And it should. The story isn't all that important, but Welles creates an athmosphere which might best be described as Kafkaesque and splashes canvas after beautiful b/w canvas onto the screen. Also features one of those multi-minute, uncut opening scenes I am quite a sucker for. (8/10)

05/10/2009

How Many Self-Controls?

Just when I had decided that my little psychology idea was too half-arsed to publish on even this blog, along comes one of the world's most famous psychologists - Martin Seligman - to support the idea with a personal anecdote:
Some theorists, like my friend Roy Baumeister, believe that self-control is a general trait. My experience with weight-loss versus exercise belies this. I have weighed 95 kg for the last twenty years, and I have dieted a dozen times only to return to 95 kg each time, usually after losing about 5 kg. No self-control? Hardly. Eighteen months ago I took up walking, knowing that 10,000 steps per day halves cardiac risk for someone my age and with my profile of risk. I have walked an average of 14,000 steps per day ever since and my New Year's resolution is 5,000,000 steps in 2009. I am well on track to my goal. So self-control is for me highly domain specific. For you?
The half-arsed idea was not that self-control is highly domain-specific, but that what we call self-control seems to actually be (only) two abilities: (i) The ability not to do something pleasant that you think you shouldn't do and (ii) the ability to do something unpleasant that you think you should do. If there is some truth to that, Seligman seems to be good at doing something (walking) but not at not doing something (eating); I think I'm the opposite.

While I'm at it, let me suggest that which one people are good at shows a decent correlation with how prone they are to be active more generally. Having said that, it seems entirely possible that people are good or bad at both; I would think the two are in fact somewhat positively correlated.

I know, it sounds like there is a contradiction in the above paragraph, but I don't think there is.

04/10/2009

It's Sneaky Swede Sunday

It's almost a year until the next World Cup starts, but the mind games have already begun:
He helpfully explains:
"It's the World Cup and, I suppose, as always, England have already won the World Cup before they have started it," said Eriksson. "The expectation is going to be huge. But I really think they can do a great World Cup, [get to the] semi-finals or the final. England has a good chance and I hope they reach the final and win it. They can do it, for sure.

"[...] The pressure is from a combination of the media and the public. On one hand it's ludicrous. But it's dangerous. I wished when I had the job that I could calm it down. Not a chance."
Nice job, Sven!

Why I Am Not a Libertarian: Murray Rothbard Explains

I'm probably more libertarian than at least 95% of the people here in Germany. I am not, however, a libertarian in any useful sense of the word. Archlibertarian Murray Rothbard, in his sketch of the US's classical liberal movement's history, quite nicely describes why*:
[The 19th century saw] the abandonment of the philosophy of natural rights [by many], and its replacement by technocratic utilitarianism. Instead of liberty grounded on the imperative morality of each individual's right to person and property, that is, instead of liberty being sought primarily on the basis of right and justice, utilitarianism preferred liberty as generally the best way to achieve a vaguely defined general welfare or common good.
Of course, once you abandon imaginary "natural rights" and kindergarten categories such as "justice" in favour of utilitarian calculus, you might end up with views that are not libertarian at all.

______
*For a New Liberty: The Libertarian Manifesto. Rev.Ed. New York, London: Collier Macmillan, p. 15. This is from the first chapter and I've only browsed the remainder of the book, but based on that I can say that Rothbard is not shy of using utilitarian arguments for libertarianism. That's a bit odd if libertarianism is right regardless of the consequences.

30/09/2009

Around the Blogs, Vol. 31: 34 Years with Against Our Will

I would probably have to quit my job if I wanted to keep up with the commentary concerning the Polanski case that can be found around the web. Even so, a few links:

1. Ann Althouse picks apart Berndard-Henry Lévi's petition; her son John joins the fun.

2. Ace of Spades asks, taking an argument used by many of Polanski's defenders seriously, "What Crimes May Celebrites Commit, Based on Their Artistic Contributions?"

3. Will at The League of Ordinary Gentlemen thinks that " [t]he only 'divide' [concerning views on the case] is between people who recognize that child rape is a heinous crime (read: pretty much everyone, conservative, libertarian and liberal alike) and our amazingly blinkered media/film establishment" and has a general go at Polanski defenders.

I know what he means, yet it particularly baffles me how people supposedly on the left can rush to the director's defense. I mean, we're talking about a rape case involving a thirteen-year-old girl and a (i) rich, (ii) well-connected, (iii) white (iv) male.

You don't even have to do any thinking. Just tick the fucking boxes!

29/09/2009

The Top Ten Reasons a Man Accused of Drugging and Ass-Raping a Thirteen-Year-Old Shouldn't Be Arrested

Yesterday I linked to Kieran Healy's piece on the recent arrest of a certain director, which you could call anti-Polanski. In the interest of fairness, today we'll hear it for the other side.

10. Bad things have happened to him:
"a new ordeal is being inflicted on someone who has already experienced so many of them" - Frederic Mitterand; also see Anne Applebaum

9. He's old: "I am shocked that any man of 76 [...] should have been treated in such a fashion" - Robert Harris

8. It was sooo long ago: "[The order] is based on a three-decade-old case" - Debra Winger

7. One can come up with a new category: "I know it wasn't rape-rape. It was something else but I don't believe it was rape-rape." - Whoopie Goldberg

6. He couldn't go to the USA or else he would have been arrested earlier: "He could not return to Los Angeles to receive his recent Oscar. He cannot visit Hollywood to direct or cast a film." - Anne Applebaum

5. The not-piling-'em-on-clause: "He hasn’t committed another crime." - bob mcmanus

4. He didn't want to be punished in the first place: "Polanksi's decision to flee is understandable." - Andrew Hammel

3. Mitigating circumstances: "It's a grey area when mama's in the building." - Woman in red dress in the first clip; anybody know her name?

2. Cost-benefit analysis: "through his films, he has brought good into the world." - a; also see The Swiss Directors' Association and Debra Winger

1. Overly crafty method of arrest: "The Swiss [...] were laying in wait, as they knew Polanski [...] was en route to accept an international film award." - Jeralyn

28/09/2009

Around the Blogs, Vol. 30

1. Pinin' for the fjords

2. I considered writing something about how various people made asses of themselves commenting on the recent arrest of Roman Polanski. But Kieran Healey's already pretty much expressed my opinion, although I don't think I would have brought the Irish into it.

3. Fake or not fake? I say fake.

4. Wir sind Pub.

Höhepunkte des Deutschen Politikjournalismus

[19.55] Und was sagt Barack?

ARD-Mann Ulrich Deppendorf fragt die USA-Korrespondentin Hanni Hüsch, wie denn in Amerika die Kommentare zur deutschen Wahl lauten. "Es gibt noch keine", sagt Hüsch.
Aus dem Wahl-Liveblog von SpOn.